Israel Votes 2026

20 days to Election Day, Tuesday, October 27

From votes to seats

How Israel turns national votes into 120 Knesset seats: closed party lists, the 3.25% threshold, the Bader-Ofer count and surplus-vote agreements.

Try it. Set each list near the threshold to pass or fail and watch where the seats go. Arithmetic from the average of the latest 7 polls, not a prediction: each list's share is its average seats over 120, and a list set to pass sits exactly at 3.25%.
  • People of Israelך4.2 in the average
  • Blue and Whiteכןbelow in every poll
  • Reservists–Economicדי4.1 in the average
  • Ra'amעם4.8 in the average
Explore Likud: 23 seatsLikud: 23 seats; shown cell 1Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 2Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 3Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 4Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 5Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 6Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 7Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 8Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 9Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 10Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 11Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 12Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 13Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 14Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 15Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 16Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 17Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 18Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 19Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 20Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 21Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 22Likud: 23 seats; shown cell 23Explore Otzma Yehudit: 7 seatsOtzma Yehudit: 7 seats; shown cell 24Otzma Yehudit: 7 seats; shown cell 25Otzma Yehudit: 7 seats; shown cell 26Otzma Yehudit: 7 seats; shown cell 27Otzma Yehudit: 7 seats; shown cell 28Otzma Yehudit: 7 seats; shown cell 29Otzma Yehudit: 7 seats; shown cell 30Explore Shas: 7 seatsShas: 7 seats; shown cell 31Shas: 7 seats; shown cell 32Shas: 7 seats; shown cell 33Shas: 7 seats; shown cell 34Shas: 7 seats; shown cell 35Shas: 7 seats; shown cell 36Shas: 7 seats; shown cell 37Explore UTJ: 7 seatsUTJ: 7 seats; shown cell 38UTJ: 7 seats; shown cell 39UTJ: 7 seats; shown cell 40UTJ: 7 seats; shown cell 41UTJ: 7 seats; shown cell 42UTJ: 7 seats; shown cell 43UTJ: 7 seats; shown cell 44Explore Religious Zionism–Zehut: 6 seatsReligious Zionism–Zehut: 6 seats; shown cell 45Religious Zionism–Zehut: 6 seats; shown cell 46Religious Zionism–Zehut: 6 seats; shown cell 47Religious Zionism–Zehut: 6 seats; shown cell 48Religious Zionism–Zehut: 6 seats; shown cell 49Religious Zionism–Zehut: 6 seats; shown cell 50Explore People of Israel: 4 seatsPeople of Israel: 4 seats; shown cell 51People of Israel: 4 seats; shown cell 52People of Israel: 4 seats; shown cell 53People of Israel: 4 seats; shown cell 54Explore Reservists–Economic: 4 seatsReservists–Economic: 4 seats; shown cell 55Reservists–Economic: 4 seats; shown cell 56Reservists–Economic: 4 seats; shown cell 57Reservists–Economic: 4 seats; shown cell 58Explore Yashar!: 22 seatsYashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 59Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 60Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 61Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 62Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 63Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 64Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 65Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 66Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 67Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 68Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 69Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 70Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 71Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 72Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 73Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 74Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 75Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 76Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 77Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 78Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 79Yashar!: 22 seats; shown cell 80Explore B'Yachad: 11 seatsB'Yachad: 11 seats; shown cell 81B'Yachad: 11 seats; shown cell 82B'Yachad: 11 seats; shown cell 83B'Yachad: 11 seats; shown cell 84B'Yachad: 11 seats; shown cell 85B'Yachad: 11 seats; shown cell 86B'Yachad: 11 seats; shown cell 87B'Yachad: 11 seats; shown cell 88B'Yachad: 11 seats; shown cell 89B'Yachad: 11 seats; shown cell 90B'Yachad: 11 seats; shown cell 91Explore The Democrats: 9 seatsThe Democrats: 9 seats; shown cell 92The Democrats: 9 seats; shown cell 93The Democrats: 9 seats; shown cell 94The Democrats: 9 seats; shown cell 95The Democrats: 9 seats; shown cell 96The Democrats: 9 seats; shown cell 97The Democrats: 9 seats; shown cell 98The Democrats: 9 seats; shown cell 99The Democrats: 9 seats; shown cell 100Explore Yisrael Beiteinu: 8 seatsYisrael Beiteinu: 8 seats; shown cell 101Yisrael Beiteinu: 8 seats; shown cell 102Yisrael Beiteinu: 8 seats; shown cell 103Yisrael Beiteinu: 8 seats; shown cell 104Yisrael Beiteinu: 8 seats; shown cell 105Yisrael Beiteinu: 8 seats; shown cell 106Yisrael Beiteinu: 8 seats; shown cell 107Yisrael Beiteinu: 8 seats; shown cell 108Explore Joint List: 8 seatsJoint List: 8 seats; shown cell 109Joint List: 8 seats; shown cell 110Joint List: 8 seats; shown cell 111Joint List: 8 seats; shown cell 112Joint List: 8 seats; shown cell 113Joint List: 8 seats; shown cell 114Joint List: 8 seats; shown cell 115Joint List: 8 seats; shown cell 116Explore Ra'am: 4 seatsRa'am: 4 seats; shown cell 117Ra'am: 4 seats; shown cell 118Ra'am: 4 seats; shown cell 119Ra'am: 4 seats; shown cell 12061
Netanyahu bloc
54
Between the blocs
4
Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties)
50
Joint List and Ra'am
12

Votes that elect no one: 2.9% of the valid vote, cast for Blue and White.

Facts checked October 5, 2026. Every number shows its source and date.

One country, one ballot, 120 seats

The Knesset has 120 members, and they are elected in "a single, nationwide constituency." Voters "elect party lists, not members of Knesset," and seats are shared out in proportion to the vote (IDI, March 16, 2026).

There are no districts. A voter in Haifa and a voter in Eilat choose from the same lists, and every valid vote goes into one national pool. Each list files a ranked slate of candidates before the election, and voters cannot reorder it. "If a party wins 10 seats, the first 10 people on the list become Knesset members" (Center for Israel Education, Sept 28, 2026). For an American reader, the nearest picture is one at-large race for all 120 seats, in which people vote for a party's slate rather than for a person.

Thirty-eight lists qualified for the October 27, 2026 ballot (Center for Israel Education, Sept 28, 2026). Each appears on the ballot under a short code of Hebrew letters; the results page maps them to the parties.

The 3.25% threshold

A list needs at least 3.25% of the valid votes to win any seats at all; this has been the rule "since the 2015 election" (IDI, March 16, 2026). The threshold has been raised several times. Summaries of that history sometimes give different years for the last step; the two IDI accounts agree once the law is separated from the election: Ofer Kenig writes that the Knesset passed the 3.25% law in March 2014 (IDI, Jan 26, 2015), and Assaf Shapira dates it to 2015, the first election held under it (IDI, Nov 8, 2022).

Israel's electoral threshold, 1949–2026

The share of valid votes a list needs to win any seats

Israel's electoral threshold, 1949–2026
First election held under itThreshold (share of valid votes)
1949No legal threshold; one seat in 120 works out to 0.83%
19511%
19921.5%
20062%
20153.25% (passed by the Knesset in March 2014)

Source: Israel Democracy Institute (Assaf Shapira), "Wasted Votes, the Electoral Threshold, and the Relationship between Them", 2022-11-08. IDI's Ofer Kenig gives the same steps (1% through 1988, 1.5% from 1992 to 2003, 2% for the next three elections) and dates the move to 3.25% to a law passed in March 2014, first applied in the 2015 election (IDI, January 26, 2015, idi.org.il). The two IDI articles agree once the year the law passed is separated from the year it was first used.

How many votes 3.25% means depends on turnout, so the exact number is known only after the count. In 2022 it was 154,855 votes, 3.25% of 4,764,742 valid votes (IDI, March 16, 2026; Central Elections Committee, Nov 2022). For 2026, with about 7.56 million eligible voters, the Center for Israel Education estimates that a list "will need 172,000 votes" (Sept 28, 2026).

Votes for a list that falls short are not passed on to anyone. They drop out of the count before any seat is assigned (IDI, March 16, 2026). In 2022, lists under the threshold drew 417,400 votes in all (Central Elections Committee, Nov 2022). IDI put the wasted share at about 8.7%, an all-time high (IDI, Nov 8, 2022). Meretz won 150,793 votes (3.16%) and missed by 4,062. Balad won 138,617 (2.91%), and Jewish Home won 56,775 (1.19%) (Central Elections Committee, Nov 2022). Shapira notes that the two blocs' vote totals were "almost identical," but the Netanyahu camp won "a clear majority of 64 seats" (IDI, Nov 8, 2022).

Lists near the threshold in 2022, share of valid votes

Each list's votes as a share of 4,764,742 valid votes. The threshold was 154,855 votes; Meretz was 4,062 short and Balad 16,238 short.

  • The threshold, 3.25%
  • Hadash–Ta'al (5 seats)3.75%
  • Labor (4 seats)3.69%
  • Meretz (no seats)3.16%
  • Balad (no seats)2.91%
  • Jewish Home (no seats)1.19%

Source: Central Elections Committee, results for the 25th Knesset (shares computed from the committee's totals), 2022-11-01. Lists as they ran in 2022. In 2026 Hadash–Ta'al and Balad run together as the Joint List, and Labor and Meretz run together as The Democrats.

How the seats are counted

The method is called Bader-Ofer, after Knesset members Yohanan Bader and Avraham Ofer. It dates from the Bader-Ofer Law, introduced in 1973, which was meant in part "to strengthen the larger parties" (IDI, Oct 30, 2022). In effect it is the D'Hondt method, worked out in two stages (Fruits and Votes, Sept 8, 2026). The steps below use the 2022 numbers. The arithmetic here is recomputed from the Central Elections Committee's totals and matches IDI's published figures (IDI, March 16, 2026).

  1. Count the valid votes and remove those cast for lists under the threshold. In 2022, 4,347,342 votes remained.
  2. Set the price of a seat. Divide the remaining votes by 120. In 2022 one seat cost 36,227 votes.
  3. Hand out whole seats. Each list gets one seat for every full 36,227 votes. In 2022 this gave out 113 seats and left 7.
  4. Hand out the leftover seats one at a time. Divide each list's votes by the seats it already holds plus one. The highest result wins the next seat. Then that list's figure is recalculated, and the process repeats. In this step, two lists with a surplus agreement count as one list.
  5. Split a pair's extra seats between its two partners by the same rule.
2022, step 3: whole seats at 36,227 votes each

Votes for the ten lists that passed the threshold, divided by 36,227 (4,347,342 ÷ 120), whole numbers only

2022, step 3: whole seats at 36,227 votes each
ListVotesWhole seatsFinal seats
Likud1,115,3363032
Yesh Atid847,4352324
Religious Zionism–Otzma Yehudit516,4701414
National Unity432,4821112
Shas392,9641011
United Torah Judaism280,19477
Yisrael Beiteinu213,68756
Ra'am194,04755
Hadash–Ta'al178,73545
Labor175,99244
Total4,347,342113120

Source: Central Elections Committee, results for the 25th Knesset (seat arithmetic computed from the committee's totals), 2022-11-01. The same seat price (36,227) and the same 113 whole seats appear in IDI's explainer (Ofer Kenig, March 16, 2026, idi.org.il). Religious Zionism–Otzma Yehudit was a joint list in 2022; in 2026 Religious Zionism runs with Zehut and Otzma Yehudit runs alone.

2022, step 4: the seven leftover seats, one round at a time

Each round, every list or surplus pair divides its votes by (seats it already has + 1); the highest result wins the next seat

2022, step 4: the seven leftover seats, one round at a time
RoundSeatWon byVotes countedSeats before the roundVotes ÷ (seats + 1)
1114Shas + United Torah Judaism673,1581737,397.67
2115National Unity + Yesh Atid1,279,9173436,569.06
3116Likud + Religious Zionism1,631,8064436,262.36
4117Hadash–Ta'al178,735435,747.00
5118Yisrael Beiteinu213,687535,614.50
6119National Unity + Yesh Atid1,279,9173535,553.25
7120Likud + Religious Zionism1,631,8064535,474.04

Source: Central Elections Committee, results for the 25th Knesset (rounds computed from the committee's totals), 2022-11-01. Pairs with surplus agreements count as one list in this step. Labor (best figure 35,198.40) and Ra'am (32,341.17) never had the highest number. The same rounds, worked from the same totals, are in Matthew Shugart, Fruits and Votes, September 8, 2026 (fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com).

Inside the Likud–Religious Zionism pair, Likud's figure (1,115,336 ÷ 31 = 35,978.58) beat its partner's (516,470 ÷ 15 = 34,431.33), so Likud took the first extra seat. Its new figure, 34,854.25, still beat Religious Zionism's, so Likud took the second as well and finished with 32 seats. Inside the other pairs, Shas took the Shas–UTJ seat, and National Unity and Yesh Atid took one seat each (Central Elections Committee, Nov 2022; Fruits and Votes, Sept 8, 2026).

Under the largest-remainder rule used for the Second through Seventh Knessets, the seven leftover seats would have gone to the seven largest unused remainders. That would have given seats to Labor and United Torah Judaism instead of Likud's second extra seat and Yesh Atid's (computed from the Central Elections Committee's totals). The tilt toward size comes almost entirely at this stage. IDI's Shapira and Gideon Rahat write that apart from leftover seats, "there is almost no electoral advantage to large lists" (IDI, April 27, 2026).

Surplus-vote agreements

Before an election, two lists may sign a surplus-vote (or vote-sharing) agreement. When leftover seats are handed out, the pair "are treated as a single list": their votes are added together and divided by their combined seats plus one (IDI, Oct 30, 2022). A pair is a bigger list, and the method favors bigger lists, so its chance of an extra seat goes up. Only two lists can sign an agreement together (IDI, Oct 30, 2022).

The larger partner usually gets the extra seat, but not always. In 2021 the smaller partner won it in three pairs: Meretz over Labor, New Hope over Yamina, and Yisrael Beiteinu over Yesh Atid (IDI, Oct 30, 2022).

An agreement counts only if both lists pass the threshold. If one fails, its partner "is considered not to have signed an agreement at all" (IDI, Oct 30, 2022). That happened to Labor in 2022. Its agreement with Meretz lapsed when Meretz fell short (IDI, April 27, 2026), so Labor competed for leftover seats alone and won none.

For 2026, press reports describe three agreements as signed: Yashar! with The Democrats, B'Yachad with Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Joint List with Ra'am. The Jerusalem Post reported that Shas and United Torah Judaism were expected to sign one (Sept 10, 2026). Israel Policy Forum reported that Likud and Religious Zionism–Zehut planned to sign (120 Project, Sept 10 entry); a week after the two parties agreed on a deal, Channel 14 reported that it had not yet been signed (Channel 14, Sept 15, 2026). Agreements can be filed until October 16 (AIJAC, Sept 14, 2026). Provisional results estimates assume only those three press-reported signed pairs; the two unconfirmed pairs are excluded. Official filing has not been established.

Surplus-vote agreements for the 2026 election

Pairs of lists that agreed to count as one list when leftover seats are shared out

Surplus-vote agreements for the 2026 election
PairStatusReported
Yashar! + The DemocratsJerusalem Post, 2026-09-10SignedSigned September 10
B'Yachad + Yisrael BeiteinuJerusalem Post, 2026-09-10SignedSigned September 10
Joint List + Ra'amJerusalem Post, 2026-09-13SignedSigned Friday, September 11
Likud + Religious Zionism–ZehutChannel 14, 2026-09-15Agreed; not yet signed as of September 15Agreed September 8; still unsigned a week later
Shas + United Torah JudaismJerusalem Post, 2026-09-10Expected"Reportedly expected" to sign

Source: Jerusalem Post and Channel 14, per row, Checked 2026-10-05. Each row has its own source. Agreements can be filed until 11 days before the election, October 16 (AIJAC, September 14, 2026, aijac.org.au).

Misreadings

"A vote for a small party is a vote for its candidates in the voter's own district." There are no districts. Every vote goes into one national count, and a list's seats go to the names at the top of its ranked slate (IDI, March 16, 2026; Center for Israel Education, Sept 28, 2026). Below 3.25%, that vote elects no one.

"Votes for a list that misses the threshold go to its allies." They are discarded. A surplus agreement does not rescue them, because it counts only when both partners pass (IDI, Oct 30, 2022). In 2022, Meretz's 150,793 votes did nothing for Labor.

"The threshold is about seats." It is a share of valid votes, not a number of seats. In 2022, a list at exactly 154,855 votes would still have been worth four whole seats at 36,227 votes each (Central Elections Committee, Nov 2022). So that year no list could pass the threshold and win only one, two or three seats. Labor, at 3.69%, won four. Meretz, at 3.16%, won none.

"The biggest party forms the government." What matters is an arrangement that can win initial confidence, not the largest list. Sixty-one is an absolute seat majority and a practical planning target. After the 2009 election, Netanyahu formed a government "even though Kadima won one more seat than Likud," and Naftali Bennett later formed one at the head of the small Yamina faction (IDI, April 27, 2026). The steps that follow election day are on forming a government.

"Seats track the vote exactly." They come close, but not exactly. The threshold drops some votes. The leftover-seat stage slightly favors large lists and pairs, and in 2022 that gave Likud a 32nd seat (Fruits and Votes, Sept 8, 2026).

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