The American lens
What Americans most often get wrong: Palestinian statehood and the conduct of the war in Gaza are not top-tier issues for most Jewish Israeli voters.
The factor that will most influence which party they vote for, and the second most important factor (first and second choices combined).
Source: Israel Democracy Institute, Aug 31–Sept 3, 2026, 605 Jewish respondents. IDI's own label for the last item is "judicial reform." Among Arab respondents (150), crime in Arab society led at 53.5%, then the economy at 46%.
Facts checked October 5, 2026. Every number shows its source and date.
The thing Americans most often get wrong about Israel's election is what it is about. In the United States, the conduct of the war in Gaza and a Palestinian state are at the center of the argument over Israel. In Israel's 2026 campaign, for most Jewish voters and for the Jewish-majority parties, they are not. This page starts there, then sets out where the rest of the American map (pro-Israel and its critics, left and right, religious and secular) fits and where it misleads.
What the election is not about
For most Jewish Israeli voters, and for the Jewish-majority lists on the October 27 ballot, the Palestinian question is not a top-tier issue in 2026. That question takes in Palestinian rights and statehood, two states or one, equality, Israel's military rule over the West Bank, which it has occupied since 1967 (Times of Israel, July 19, 2024), and the conduct of the war in Gaza.
What voters say will decide their vote. Asked by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) for their first and second considerations, Jewish respondents chose foreign affairs and security (39%), the economy and cost of living (38%) and conscription (27%). The Palestinian issue was not offered as a separate answer (IDI, Aug 31–Sept 3, 2026).
What the parties say. Only Ra'am and the Joint List name a Palestinian state as a goal. In a Ynet questionnaire no Jewish-majority list did: several oppose one, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar! says it is "not on the agenda," The Democrats speak of "separation," and Likud declined to answer (Ynet, Sept 30, 2026). Western recognitions of the State of Palestine in September 2025 united the main Jewish-majority parties against them: Yair Lapid called the step "a reward for terror," and Yair Golan of The Democrats "destructive" (Times of Israel, Sept 22, 2025). Netanyahu uses the idea against rivals; his video of September 18 asked, "Do you want a Palestinian state? (or) do you want a Jewish state?", aimed at Eisenkot, whom Reuters describes as "a hawkish former military chief" (Reuters, via Jerusalem Post, Sept 29, 2026).
Where the question is on the ballot. Ra'am supports a negotiated two-state solution (Ynet). Yousef Jabareen, who leads Hadash and the Joint List, has said the list would push for renewed negotiations with the Palestinian leadership toward a Palestinian state alongside Israel, and seek equality for Arab citizens (Jerusalem Post, Sept 1, 2026). The Joint List's answer to Ynet calls the settlements a violation of international law and a war crime. The Palestinians whose statehood is the question have no vote for the Knesset: most in East Jerusalem are Israeli residents, not citizens, and those in the rest of the West Bank and in Gaza are not Israeli citizens either (Inter-Agency Task Force, updated Dec 2022); see who votes.
What Jewish Israelis say about Gaza and a state. In July 2025 the IDI asked, "To what extent are you personally troubled or not troubled by the reports of famine and suffering among the Palestinian population in Gaza?" Of Jewish respondents, 79% said they were not so troubled or not at all troubled; 86% of Arab respondents said they were troubled (IDI, July 27–31, 2025). In spring 2026, 16% of Jewish Israelis thought a way could be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully, and 64% said it could not (Pew, April 5–May 6, 2026).
Why, in pollsters' words. "To many Jewish Israelis, the recent war in Gaza is evidence that peaceful coexistence is not an option," Pew reported. One respondent put it this way:
Since what happened on Oct. 7, I have lost all faith in the Palestinian people and in the two-state solution for both peoples.
The share of Jewish Israelis who thought coexistence possible was 32% in spring 2023, before October 7, and 16% in 2025 and 2026 (Pew, Sept 15, 2026). In 2026, 68% of Jewish respondents told the IDI that October 7 is a central factor in their vote (IDI). Asked Pew's coexistence question, Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem were about as doubtful: 21% said a way can be found and 68% said it cannot. Many of them, Pew reported, "say coexistence is not an option while they live under Israeli control" (Pew, March 30–April 28, 2026).
The legal record. Much of the American argument draws on a legal record that Israel rejects: South Africa's case at the International Court of Justice, which has not been decided; the International Criminal Court's November 2024 arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant; and a UN commission of inquiry's September 2025 conclusion. Who votes, and who doesn't sets out each finding in its own words, with Israel's response.
The American contrast. In the United States the war is where the argument over Israel happens. In a Washington Post poll of 815 American Jews in September 2025, 61% said Israel has committed war crimes against Palestinians (Washington Post poll, Sept 2–9, 2025, via JTA). In May 2026, Americans viewed the Palestinian people (50% favorable) about as favorably as the Israeli people (52%) (Pew, May 4–17, 2026). See a Palestinian state and the 2026 vote for the party table.
Why "pro-Israel" is not an Israeli category
The best-known American organizations on Israel each define themselves in American terms: by the U.S. policy they want, or by the American Jews they organize.
- AIPAC: "AIPAC is an American grassroots organization that works to strengthen the U.S.-Israel partnership" (AIPAC, About).
- J Street: "J Street organizes pro-Israel, pro-peace, pro-democracy Americans to promote US policies" (J Street, About).
- Jewish Voice for Peace: "The Jewish Voice for Peace family of organizations organizes a grassroots, multiracial, cross-class, intergenerational movement of U.S. Jews into solidarity with the Palestinian freedom struggle" (JVP, About).
All three organize Americans and work on American policy and politics, not on Knesset elections. "Pro-Israel," in the sense these groups argue over, is a position in American politics about American policy. Israeli voters are not choosing between pro-Israel and anti-Israel parties.
American views of Israel also divide along American lines of religion and party. In March 2026, 64% of Jewish Americans and 65% of White evangelical Protestants viewed Israel favorably, against 37% of all Americans, down from 55% in 2022. Republicans were 58% favorable; 80% of Democrats were unfavorable (Pew Research Center, March 23–29, 2026).
Why Israeli left and right don't line up with American ones
The main axis is the Palestinian question, not the economy. An expert survey of Israeli party positions in the 2021 and 2022 elections found that the general left-right dimension is "overwhelmed by parties' positions on policies related to the Arab-Israeli conflict" (Zur and Bakker, Party Politics, CHES-Israel 2021–22). Economic positions are a separate, weaker dimension. The same study places Shas and United Torah Judaism, the two Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties, on the right on the West Bank and a Palestinian state, and on the left on economics.
Group identity predicts the vote better than income. A study of Israel's 2020 locality results found that "voting behavior is better explained by affiliation to the social group" than by education, income or place (Zeedan, Societies, 2024). In the March 2021 election, 46% of Likud voters reported below-average household income and 29% above-average; 46% of Yesh Atid voters reported above-average income (IDI, six pooled polls, n=3,948, 2021).
"Left" and "right" track the Palestinian question. In spring 2025, 54% of Israelis on the left and 7% on the right thought Israel and an independent Palestinian state could coexist peacefully (Pew, 2025). Israeli Jews have also moved right on their own placement: 62% put themselves on the right in 2022, up from 46% in 2019.
Self-placement on a 1–7 left-right scale; 5–7 counted as right.
Source: Israel Democracy Institute data, via Times of Israel, 1986–2022, 750–1,200 Jewish respondents per year. The Jewish People Policy Institute found 66% of Israeli Jews placing themselves on the right in July 2026, on a different scale; the two series should not be joined (timesofisrael.com).
Where the fights rhyme and where they don't
Courts. Both countries argue over how far courts should check elected majorities, and who picks the judges. On January 1, 2024, a full 15-justice panel struck down the 2023 law ending "reasonableness" review, 8–7 (NPR, January 1, 2024). Judges are chosen by a nine-member committee of ministers, lawmakers, lawyers and justices, not nominated by an executive and confirmed by a legislature. A 2025 law changes that committee and takes effect when the next Knesset convenes, after the October 27 vote (Times of Israel). See courts and the judicial overhaul.
Religion and state. "Israel does not allow civil marriage, and Jewish marriages conducted in Israel must be sanctioned by Orthodox rabbis" (Pew, 2016). And the Israeli liberal camp is mostly secular, not Reform or Conservative: in Pew's surveys, 3% of Israeli Jews identified as Reform and 2% as Conservative, against 35% and 18% of U.S. Jews (Pew, 2016; Israel data 2014–15, U.S. data 2013). See religion and state.
The data on the gap
On the question Pew has asked both publics, Israeli Jews moved; American Jews, up to 2020, did not.
A way can be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully (% saying this).
Source: Pew Research Center (several surveys), 2013–2026. Same Pew wording, different Pew surveys; each bar carries its own survey. Pew's Global Attitudes survey of spring 2014, a different survey from the 2014–15 Israel religion survey, gives 37% for Israeli Jews (pewresearch.org). No Pew figure for U.S. Jews on this question after 2020 was found.
A way can be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully (% saying this), all Israeli adults.
Source: Pew Research Center, Global Attitudes surveys in Israel (trend in the 2026 coexistence report), 2013–2026. In 2026, 56% of Israelis said it was not possible, the first time a majority said so (Pew). Includes Palestinian citizens of Israel, whom Pew labels "Israeli Arabs"; Pew notes many of them declined to answer in 2026.
Where the same questions go to both publics, American Jews are more worried and Israeli Jews more confident. The Jewish People Policy Institute's U.S. sample is a panel of "connected" Jews, more engaged than American Jews as a whole.
Share agreeing, by statement.
U.S. "connected" Jews (JPPI panel)Israeli Jews
- Israeli government policy contributes to antisemitism to a large extentJPPI Jewish People Voice Index, via Jerusalem Post, Sept 2026
- No connection between Israeli policy and antisemitismJPPI Jewish People Voice Index, via Jerusalem Post, Sept 2026
- Israel should not change its policy at allJPPI Jewish People Voice Index, via Jerusalem Post, Sept 2026
- Optimistic about Israel's futureJPPI Jewish People Voice Index, via Jerusalem Post, Sept 2026
- Reports of famine in Gaza are trueJPPI: U.S. panel Aug 14–18, 2025 (n=639); Israeli Jews from JPPI's August 2025 Israeli Society Index, August 2025
- Worried Israel is becoming a pariahJPPI: U.S. panel Aug 14–18, 2025 (n=639); Israeli Jews from JPPI's August 2025 Israeli Society Index, August 2025
The numbers: Same question, two publics: U.S. "connected" Jews and Israeli Jews
| Statement | U.S. "connected" Jews (JPPI panel) | Israeli Jews |
|---|---|---|
| Israeli government policy contributes to antisemitism to a large extentJPPI Jewish People Voice Index, via Jerusalem Post, Sept 2026 | 39% | 28% |
| No connection between Israeli policy and antisemitismJPPI Jewish People Voice Index, via Jerusalem Post, Sept 2026 | 23% | 44% |
| Israel should not change its policy at allJPPI Jewish People Voice Index, via Jerusalem Post, Sept 2026 | 37% | 57% |
| Optimistic about Israel's futureJPPI Jewish People Voice Index, via Jerusalem Post, Sept 2026 | 19% | 43% |
| Reports of famine in Gaza are trueJPPI: U.S. panel Aug 14–18, 2025 (n=639); Israeli Jews from JPPI's August 2025 Israeli Society Index, August 2025 | 48% | 36% |
| Worried Israel is becoming a pariahJPPI: U.S. panel Aug 14–18, 2025 (n=639); Israeli Jews from JPPI's August 2025 Israeli Society Index, August 2025 | 75% | 62% |
Source: Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI), Aug 2025 and Sept 2026. Two JPPI survey rounds, each row dated. In the August 2025 rows the Israeli figures come from a separate JPPI survey, its Israeli Society Index, fielded earlier that month. JPPI's U.S. sample is a panel of "connected" Jews ("engaged" in the 2026 report), more engaged with Jewish life than U.S. Jews as a whole.
Misreadings
"The election is a referendum on the war in Gaza, or on two states." Jewish voters rank security, the cost of living and conscription highest, and IDI did not offer the Palestinian issue as an answer (IDI, Aug 31–Sept 3, 2026). A Palestinian state is on the ballot mainly through the Joint List and Ra'am. See a Palestinian state and the 2026 vote.
"Arab citizens don't really take part." Palestinian citizens of Israel vote and win seats: in 2022, Ra'am won 5 and Hadash–Ta'al 5, while Balad fell short of the 3.25% threshold with 2.9% (IDI, 2022 results). See Palestinian citizens of Israel.
"American Jews are Israel's strongest supporters in America." In March 2026, Jewish Americans (64% favorable) were about where White evangelical Protestants were (65%) (Pew).