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Israel Votes2026
Election Day Tuesday, Oct 27, 202622 days awayPolls last updated Oct 5, 2026
Netanyahu bloc

Otzma Yehudit

Leader
Itamar Ben-Gvir
Surplus-vote partner
None found. Ben-Gvir refused Winter. (CRC party register, Oct 4, 2026)

Who they are

  • Founded 2012. Israel Policy Forum calls it the “ideological continuation” of Meir Kahane's Kach, which was outlawed in 1994. (IPF; Wikipedia)
  • Ben-Gvir has led it since 2019. It won 6 seats in 2022 inside the Religious Zionism joint list. He left the government in Jan 2025 over the ceasefire and returned in March 2025. (Wikipedia)

Who votes for them

  • 2022: 6 seats as part of the Religious Zionism joint list (516,470 votes, 10.84%, 14 seats in all). (IDI; Wikipedia)
  • Draws “traditional Mizrahi voters from the periphery” (Finkelstein). (Times of Israel, Apr 15, 2026)
  • 13% of Haredi first-time voters. (N12 via JPost, Sep 23, 2026)
  • Courting disappointed Likud and Shas voters. (JPost, Aug 22, 2026)

Where they stand

Haredi draft
Backed the July 14 law banning arrests of draft evaders; proposes Haredi tracks in police and Border Police: “enter service as Haredi and leave it as Haredi.” (Ynet, 2026)
Courts
Backed the 2023 judicial reforms; wants political control of judicial appointments. (CRC party register, Oct 4, 2026)
War & Gaza
“Disengagement 710” plan: an emigration ministry and 250,000 Gazan departures a year, NIS 10 billion. “This is a free choice; we are not forcing anyone to leave, but there is encouragement.” (JPost, Sep 3; JTA, Sep 6, 2026)
West Bank
Opposes a Palestinian state and evacuating settlers. On Temple Mount prayer: Jews “feel that they are the rightful owners of this place.” (JPost, Jul 23, 2026)
Religion & state
No 2026 position found
Economy
No 2026 position found

Names on the list

  • No. 2Tally Gotliv, former Likud MK
  • No. 4Amichai Eliyahu
  • No. 12Yishai Fleisher, Hebron spokesman

Times of Israel, Sep 7, 2026 (no primaries)

Coalition pledges

  • A “fully right-wing government”; no unity with centrists, no Arab parties; demands the Defense or Justice ministry; no Palestinian-state talks. (JPost, Sep 2026)

In their words

“We survived Pharaoh, we will survive Keir Starmer as well.”
Itamar Ben-Gvir, on UK sanctions · June 2025

Seats in each poll

i24NEWS, Oct 28
Maariv, Oct 29
Channel 13, Oct 18
Zman Yisrael, Oct 16
Kan 11, Sep 287
Channel 12, Sep 226
Channel 14, latest7

Average 7.33 across 6 polls (Channel 14 not included). Channel 14 figure is the latest in our register; its date is not given.

Bios

Itamar Ben-Gvir. Born 1976 to Iraqi-Jewish parents. Active in Kach's youth movement; convicted in 2007 of incitement and support for a terror organization. National Security Minister from December 2022; left in January 2025 and returned in March 2025.

Bio source: Wikipedia, accessed Oct 2026, via the research memo and party registers.

Sources

  1. Maariv / Lazar poll, fieldwork Sep 30–Oct 1, 2026, published Oct 2, 2026, via Jerusalem Post: jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-910396.
  2. Channel 13 poll, published Oct 1, 2026 (n=1,013), via Times of Israel liveblog. Reservists–Economic polled below the threshold.
  3. Zman Yisrael / Tatika poll, published Oct 1, 2026 (n=500, margin ±4.4).
  4. Kan 11 poll, published Sep 28, 2026, via Jerusalem Post: jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-909918. Kan did not report Shas or UTJ separately. The listed parties add up to 106, so Shas and UTJ together hold 14 (our arithmetic: 120 − 106).
  5. Channel 14 / Next Data / Filber poll, published Oct 1, 2026, via skarim.org. Left out of averages and the coalition count: runs well above other polls for Likud (31–32 vs 19–21). Sep 23 and Sep 28 polls also cited; figures marked date-uncertain are the latest in our register without a date.
  6. Kan 11 / Kantar poll, fieldwork Sep 6, 2026, published Sep 6, 2026 (n=551), via Kan 11: kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/1096840/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  7. Channel 14 / SF+ND poll, fieldwork Sep 7, 2026, published Sep 7, 2026 (n=1,057), via Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1693697. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  8. Channel 12 / Midgam R&C poll, fieldwork Sep 7, 2026, published Sep 7, 2026 (n=503), via Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-067c7eb8e9c70a1026.htm. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  9. Maariv / LRI+P4A poll, fieldwork Sep 7–8, 2026, published Sep 8, 2026 (n=600), via The Jerusalem Post: jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-907949. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  10. Channel 13 / MP+TM+SN+A poll, fieldwork Sep 9, 2026, published Sep 9, 2026 (n=1,119), via Channel 13: 13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/politics/z10wm-905351997/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  11. i24NEWS / Direct Polls poll, fieldwork Sep 9, 2026, published Sep 9, 2026 (n=1,054), via i24NEWS: i24news.tv/he/news/israel-elections-2026/polls/artc-a92f58d0. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  12. Channel 14 / SF+ND poll, fieldwork Sep 9, 2026, published Sep 9, 2026 (n=537), via Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1697000. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  13. Walla / LRI+P4A poll, fieldwork Sep 9, 2026, published Sep 9, 2026 (n=506). Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  14. Kan 11 / Kantar poll, fieldwork Sep 9, 2026, published Sep 9, 2026 (n=554), via Kan 11: kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/1098105/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  15. Channel 12 / Midgam R&C poll, fieldwork Sep 9, 2026, published Sep 9, 2026 (n=504), via Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-c27dc00e8c680a1026.htm. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  16. Maariv / LRI+P4A poll, fieldwork Sep 9–10, 2026, published Sep 11, 2026 (n=601), via Maariv: maariv.co.il/news/politics/article-1365318. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  17. Zman Yisrael / Yossi Tatika poll, fieldwork Sep 9–10, 2026, published Sep 11, 2026 (n=500), via Zman Yisrael: zman.co.il/723041/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  18. Kan 11 / Kantar poll, fieldwork Sep 14, 2026, published Sep 14, 2026, via Kan 11: kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/1099439/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  19. Channel 14 / SF+ND poll, fieldwork Sep 15, 2026, published Sep 15, 2026 (n=483), via Haredim 10: ch10.co.il/en/news/1101859/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  20. Channel 12 / Midgam R&C poll, fieldwork Sep 14, 2026, published Sep 15, 2026, via Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-16f5b846bd3a0a1026.htm. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  21. Channel 13 / MP+TM+SN+A poll, fieldwork Sep 15, 2026, published Sep 16, 2026 (n=886), via Channel 13: 13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/politics/uo4p5-905360485/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  22. Channel 14 / SF+ND poll, fieldwork Sep 17, 2026, published Sep 17, 2026 (n=817), via Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1706627. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  23. i24NEWS / Direct Polls poll, fieldwork Sep 17, 2026, published Sep 17, 2026 (n=519), via i24NEWS: i24news.tv/he/news/israel-elections-2026/polls/artc-5b0e5baa. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  24. Israel Hayom / Kantar poll, fieldwork Sep 16–17, 2026, published Sep 17, 2026 (n=551), via Israel Hayom: israelhayom.co.il/news/politics/article/21444759. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  25. Zman Yisrael / Yossi Tatika poll, fieldwork Sep 16–17, 2026, published Sep 17, 2026 (n=500), via Zman Yisrael: zman.co.il/725468//. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  26. Maariv / LRI+P4A poll, fieldwork Sep 16–17, 2026, published Sep 18, 2026 (n=600), via Maariv: maariv.co.il/news/politics/article-1368599. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  27. Channel 12 / Midgam R&C poll, fieldwork Sep 22, 2026, published Sep 22, 2026 (n=501), via Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-fad59e819c9c0a1027.htm. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  28. Channel 14 / SF+ND poll, fieldwork Sep 23, 2026, published Sep 23, 2026 (n=647), via Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1711606. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  29. Channel 13 / MP+TM+SN+A poll, fieldwork Sep 23, 2026, published Sep 23, 2026 (n=1,503), via Channel 13: 13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/politics/hcp4l-905367553/?pid=98577. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  30. i24NEWS / Direct Polls poll, fieldwork Sep 24, 2026, published Sep 24, 2026 (n=537), via i24NEWS: i24news.tv/he/news/israel-elections-2026/polls/artc-5d1d4577. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  31. Zman Yisrael / Yossi Tatika poll, fieldwork Sep 23–24, 2026, published Sep 25, 2026 (n=500), via The Times of Israel: timesofisrael.com/netanyahus-coalition-and-rival-change-bloc-draw-level-in-latest-toi-poll/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  32. Maariv / LRI+P4A poll, fieldwork Sep 23–24, 2026, published Sep 25, 2026 (n=610), via The Jerusalem Post: jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-909659. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  33. i24NEWS / Direct Polls poll, fieldwork Oct 1, 2026, published Oct 2, 2026 (n=504), via Haredim 10: ch10.co.il/en/news/1105029/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
  34. Party profiles (history, voters, positions, list names, pledges, surplus partners, quotes): research registers compiled Oct 4, 2026, from the sources named next to each item (Israel Democracy Institute, Times of Israel, Jerusalem Post, Ynet, JTA, INN, Al Jazeera, Maariv and others). Quotes are translated from Hebrew where needed and were seen through summaries; their wording has not yet been checked against the originals.
  35. Leader bios: Wikipedia, accessed Oct 2026, via the research memo and party registers.